CE: Commercial Real Estate – Squishy but Firming! An Outlook for Real Estate & The Economy
The pandemic triggered the loss of 22 million U.S. jobs in under 60 days starting March 2020 – an economic and psychological shock. Interest rates plummeted to historic lows, fueling record-high commercial real estate sales. But by Q4 2022, rates surged, sales collapsed, and capital markets froze. Although 10-year rates briefly dropped in late 2023, they rebounded in 2024 and remain high. Despite steady employment, commercial real estate sales dropped over 50% in 2023 and continued to struggle – a “train wreck” period from 2022 to 2024.
The good news? The lending freeze is beginning to thaw. Office remains weak, but multifamily is rebounding, and retail and industrial are holding strong. Repositioning properties could unlock billions in opportunity for savvy investors. Join Ted to hear his forecast for markets, interest rates, and the economy through 2025 and 2026.