Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales data represents reported closings for new and existing single‐family homes and condominiums/co‐ops. The data is provided to OAR monthly by Multiple Listing Services in Ohio, representing at least 95 percent of MLS activity in Ohio within any given month.
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Existing Statewide Home Sales Data
Seasonal adjustment is an often used method of more accurately reporting data that is affected by patterned/typical seasonal movements within years. Seasonally adjusting the data removes the predictable pattern and allows discernment as to whether movement is due to the predictable pattern or to the effect of something else going on (economy fluctuations, cold winter…) The adjusted rate is annualized to allow comparisons of months within a year and comparisons to quarters. Statistical software that has the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment program built in is used to adjust the data.
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) Methodology
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) provides advanced information on future home-sales activity. Specifically, pending home sales become existing-home sales one-to-two months later so the PHSI can be used to predict actual home sales activity. The index is based on a sampling of Multiple Listing Service pending sales activity in Ohio, typically representing slightly above or slightly below 68 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. The index is seasonally adjusted to smooth out fluctuations that typically exist from month to month.
To create the index, current pending home sales are compared to pending home sales in 2008. 2008 is used as a base year because it marks the end of five consecutive record years for existing home sales and the onset of the recession. 2008 home sales activity coincides with a level that is historically healthy. A PHSI score of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.
Ohio REALTOR Confidence Index
The REALTOR Confidence Indices measure the strength of the current housing market, expectation about the future housing market and expectations for future home prices. The three indexes are based on monthly responses from surveys sent to a pool of 1,500 OAR participants. The survey questions are designed to capture the effects of existing economic conditions and trends on the real estate business. The index provides a snapshot of REALTORS’ experiences, sentiments and expectations of their counterparts.
REALTOR Current Market Index (RCMI) and REALTOR® Future Market Index (RFMI)
To create the RCMI and RFMI, responses are assigned points of 0, 50 or 100. A response of “strong” is assigned 100 points,” while moderate” is given 50 points and “weak” gets 0 points.
REALTOR Price Index (RPI)
To create the RPI, responses are assigned points ranging from 0 to 100. A response of “rise 5% +” earns 100 points, “rise 0 – 5%” gets 75 points, “level” receives 50 points, “fall 0 – 5%” earns 25 points and “fall 5% +” is assigned 0 points.